The latest Newspoll shows that both major parties are running to a virtual dead heat. But minor parties are polling up to 15%, so the question is can swings in individual seats produce independent candidates. Moreover, in a double dissolution Senate race, the quota required to gain a seat is halved and this may offset an advantage gained but the change in Senate voting laws rushed through prior to proroguement. And the election X factor seems to lie with the Nick Xenephon Team who are polling 3% nationally and high enough in Adelaide to threaten embattled ex minister Jamie Briggs in Mayo. Dr Peter Chen one of the ‘Election Nerds’ analyses this poll in detail
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